Predicting the Presidential Election

With the election day looming around the corner, predictions are all over the place as far as who will win this November. The majority of the polls and experts suggest that Hillary will win, but this is an election like we have never seen before.  The U.S. is torn between two of the least favorable candidates in history, a flamboyant tough guy and a chronic liar – the ticket could not be harder to predict. The unprecedented independent candidate success plays into the uncertainty as much as the voters who choose to sit this election out. All of this casts a huge fog over the nation as to what will happen this November – however, one professor thinks he has the answer.

Dr. Allan Lichtman is a professor of history at American university and has created a formula to predict the results of U.S. Presidential elections – and he has proven the formula correct by accurately predicting the elections since 1984! In Litchman’s book, “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016”, he has laid out several true/ false questions to determine the victor – the guidelines are as follows:

  • Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
  • Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
  • Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
  • Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
  • Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
  • Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
  • Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
  • Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
  • Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
  • Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
  • Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
  • Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
  • Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

The keys are 13 true/false questions, where an answer of “true” always favors the reelection of the party holding the White House

After answering these questions, Litchman admitted this is an incredibly hard election to predict but he has decided to make the prediction that Trump will be the victor this year. How can that be? He made the prediction about a month ago before the leaked sound bite about grabbing women – but the professor sticks by it.

It is hard to say if that is wise or not. There are at least some shreds of evidence to suggest that the news channels and some polling to be eschewed against Trump – so it is not impossible. This could be, as David Cameron suggested, Trump will “be the new Ronald Reagan”. Just like the Brexit vote in the UK earlier this year, the US presidential election may not have been polled accurately. Either way, it will be close. I will submit my own presidential prediction after tonight’s debate.

The best part about hating both candidates is you truly get to enjoy the attacks from both sides. After this debate, I will make an attempt at making a state-by-state prediction of my own – so stay tuned.


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