In a gambling type of pleasure, I really want to make an election prediction. Having the least two favorable candidates in history surely doesn’t help, and the unpredictable leaks makes predicting this election all the more unstable. Of course, hind sight is going to be 20-20, but as for now, it is kind of hard to tell how this election will turn out. I actually have been keeping up with the polls and think that it would be a great time to make a guess. I Tried to publish this prediction before the last debate, but after the trump and Hillary leaks, it was not wise to assume the results were even close to predictable.
For my prediction, I will include a map of each state and I will break the states down into groups: Solid States, Swing States, and Independent States. Here is my first prediction, subject to change after the first debate:
You can make your own map here at RealClearPolitics
Most of these are pretty obvious and most consider these states to not be in play in this election, and sometimes, ever. For Donald trump and the Republican states, we have Idaho, Minnesota, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alaska, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky and West Virginia. AS far as Hillary Clinton and the Democrat states, I expect these states too will fall along the usual states such as Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine. There will be no doubt as to these states.
The real states that matter are the swing states. Most are the typical states such as Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina. Others would usually include New Hampshire and Minnesota due to the Republican leadership there, but Clinton is seeing large leads there so I consider those two hers. However, despite Trumps recent gaffs, he does hold a decent lead in Iowa and Ohio. Even though it is close in these states, I am willing to guess the results.
Iowa, and Ohio will go to Trump. The leads in North Carolina are in favor of Clinton, but I expect Trump to win one of these swing states – probably North Carolina. Pennsylvania, usually a state-in-play, is Clinton’s for sure. The big states like Virginia and Florida, however close, will also go to her. The states that will win it for her are Pennsylvania, Florida, and Virginia.
Consistent readers of mine will know that I am somewhat grudgingly voting for Johnson just to make my vain, futile attempt to fight the two-party system. If it works or not, Independent Candidates are making a huge impact nationwide. Of course there is Johnson and Stein holding onto their 8% and 2% votes, respectively. But there is also presidential candidate McMullen in Utah making huge leads in that state that could tip the scale away from trump and Clinton.
In Utah, Clinton and Trump have 25.5% and 31.8% respectively, but a recent surge brought McMullen up to 22.8% in that state over the course of two weeks! Whether he wins that state or not, McMullen is a surprising new twist in that state in particular – and whether we should expect more from him, or the other independent candidates will remain to be seen. As of now, it would not matter too much in the election as a whole – but it may loosen the two-party grip.
The only other two states that I would assign to this are New Mexico and Alaska which have shown big independent support recently. New Mexico, Johnson’s former state is a victory for Clinton with 40% for her and only 20% for Johnson. Alaska, too has seen gains for Johnson, but have predictable fallen considerably since his Aleppo gaffs. Either way, Independent candidates are making unprecedented success nationwide that can, hopefully, help reject the two party system that has, up till now, failed to represent us.